Basic surf forecasting
In the early days of surfing there were very few forecasting tools other than the local weather forecast. Most surfers lived near the coast and checked the waves often. Some were knowledgeable enough to monitor storms and make predictions. Bottom line was you had to be on top of it and monitor the ocean often. Surf forecasting has evolved in the past 20 years mostly due to the advancements in technology. Now it is possible to pinpoint when and where the perfect conditions will occur. Weather satellites enable forecaster to track storms as they move across the ocean basin. There is a network of ocean buoys that allow wave height measurements and other pertinent data collection. There are; surf reports (free or pay), weather reports, marine reports, buoy reports, tide charts, and wind reports. It is all right at your fingertips is you know where to look http://www.buoyweather.com/ There are some pretty incredible computer models that do an excellent job of forecasting future wave heights. If used properly, these electronic tools will keep you in sync with the swells, local conditions, and the tides. The Navy has an excellent forecasting site that the surfers have been onto for years. Fleet Numerical Meteorological and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) has been one of the top ocean forecasting sites for years. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ww3_cgi/index.html. Surf line has a computer model called LOLA. This is a pay service that does an excellent job. All this technology has also increased crowds at all the good spots. http://www.surfline.com/. All of this detailed forecasting puts informed surfers in the right place at the right time. Surfers are now able to fly thousands of miles to surf perfect conditions based on accurate forecasts. They are able to surf a big swell in Hawaii, then catch a plane to California and ride the same swell a day and a half later.
In order to find good surfing conditions; first there must be adequate swell. While some may be satisfied with perfect conditions and small waves, most prefer head-high or larger conditions. So first you are looking for some type of swell generating feature such as a frontal system or storm. These will be indicated by the darker red colors on the wave models with the darkest red indicating the largest waves. The image above shows England getting hit by a storm while France and Spain get good swell. Notice Florida with near nothing, and Puerto Rico with some action. You should pay attention to the arrows that indicate the wave direction. If a storm is moving away from you there is very little energy off the back of the storm. Most energy will be pushed to the front and to the sides, with every storm being different. The storm should not be too close as to affect the local conditions where you want to surf, or too far away. There is a perfect ‘window’ that will allow adequate swell to focus smooth lines in your direction while allowing local wind conditions to be moderate. A good example would be a hurricane a few hundred miles off the coast. http://www.stormsurf.com
Hurricanes are great wave producers, but dependent on the intensity and movement of the storm. If the hurricane is near the coast the waves are usually big and stormy. If the hurricane is 100 miles out you may experience slightly better conditions. When the storm is in the optimum “swell window” for you location, strong swells will reach the coast, but will still allow the surface conditions to be determined by the local weather pattern. You also need to have the storm in the perfect window long enough to generate a good swell. So your best wishes are that the storm stays in your window. A good example of this is the ocean north of the Hawaiian Islands. Watch the storm models during peak season from October through February and you will see what actually creates the big surf. Second there must be favorable local conditions. You do not really want to surf large choppy waves in the wind and rain do you? Local conditions should be either light or offshore winds. In most places you really need to pay attention to the exact time when the wind changes from an onshore flow to offshore. This will help create smooth ocean surface conditions and groom the waves. This can be compared to 'bluebird' conditions in snow skiing as most do wait for the perfect conditions that follow the passing of the storm. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/home.htm.
Third, the tide will be a factor in planning your surf. If you have the two above factors but the tide is extremely high, it may result in mushy conditions. Most surfers prefer a low to medium rising tide but it will depend on where you will be surfing. The rising water sometimes gives a little extra push. Keep in mind that every break is different and there are some that can only be surfed on a high tide. Tide is a factor to consider. The coastal geography also affects the shape of the waves and how they break. Choose where you are going to surf based on size of the swell. The big wave breaks in Hawaii such as ‘Wiamea” or ‘Jaws’ only break a few times a year when the swell reaches 30 feet! While one side of the island is getting pummeled by a direct swell, the other side still can be holding perfect surf in the 1-3 foot range. The geographic location of the Hawaiian islands incorporate; a favorable swell window with numerous intense seasonal storms, no continental shelf, consistent offshore trade winds, and some of the best reef bottoms in the world. The trade winds groom these giant swells to perfection. Your first paddle out in Hawaii will be heart thumping...and memorable! California also has a very favorable swell window that is open to swells from the North during the winter months, and the South during the summer. The diverse coastal geography of California creates every type of wave imaginable; beach breaks, reef breaks, and point breaks. Some of the breaks face south, some face north, and some are open to both swell windows. California also has kelp, this is seaweed like growth that isolates surface chop and helps to smooth the surface making glassy conditions all day long. Florida is not so blessed but is still open to swells from the North, East, and South. Surfers in Florida have to really stay on top of conditions as all the elements do not come together that frequently. You can catch perfect surf in Florida, but you have to stay on top of it. Sleep in and you will miss it!
